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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

However this year's race is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent also-rans improving together. Under an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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